[ Nature du désalignement du taux de change en Afrique sub-saharienne ]
Volume 39, Issue 4, June 2023, Pages 1656–1679
Kirsi Zongo1, Mahamadou Diarra2, and M. Idrissa Ouedraogo3
1 Laboratoire d’Economie Appliquée, Université Norbert ZONGO, Burkina Faso
2 Agrégé des facultés des sciences économiques, Université Norbert ZONGO, Burkina Faso
3 Professeur Titulaire, Université Aube Nouvelle, Burkina Faso
Original language: French
Copyright © 2023 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This article aims to analyze the nature of the misalignment of the exchange rate by comparing its amplitude according to the two exchange rate regimes. To do this, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model (BEER) is used and with the help of the PMG estimator of the ARDL model on a panel of 36 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and on the period 1998-2018. The analyzes show that the real effective exchange rates (REER) of SSA countries that have adopted a fixed exchange rate regime are globally misaligned and that there are significant disparities between countries. These results clearly show that the management of the exchange rate seems not to be mastered or that it is not in favor of an export promotion policy. As for the countries that have adopted the flexible exchange rate regime, they tend to have a less misaligned REER. However, some countries such as the Comoros Islands, Guinea, Gambia and Kenya have experienced significant deviations of their REER from its long-term equilibrium. Such a counter-intuitive result shows that these countries seem in fact to practice an exchange rate regime contrary to those officially declared and/or that they are unable to use their automatic stabilizer weapon. As a result, it is imperative for SSA countries to adopt good exchange rate management by opting for consecutive undervaluations in order to promote the growth of the export sector and industrial development.
Author Keywords: misalignment, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, sub-Saharan Africa.
Volume 39, Issue 4, June 2023, Pages 1656–1679
Kirsi Zongo1, Mahamadou Diarra2, and M. Idrissa Ouedraogo3
1 Laboratoire d’Economie Appliquée, Université Norbert ZONGO, Burkina Faso
2 Agrégé des facultés des sciences économiques, Université Norbert ZONGO, Burkina Faso
3 Professeur Titulaire, Université Aube Nouvelle, Burkina Faso
Original language: French
Copyright © 2023 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
This article aims to analyze the nature of the misalignment of the exchange rate by comparing its amplitude according to the two exchange rate regimes. To do this, the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model (BEER) is used and with the help of the PMG estimator of the ARDL model on a panel of 36 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and on the period 1998-2018. The analyzes show that the real effective exchange rates (REER) of SSA countries that have adopted a fixed exchange rate regime are globally misaligned and that there are significant disparities between countries. These results clearly show that the management of the exchange rate seems not to be mastered or that it is not in favor of an export promotion policy. As for the countries that have adopted the flexible exchange rate regime, they tend to have a less misaligned REER. However, some countries such as the Comoros Islands, Guinea, Gambia and Kenya have experienced significant deviations of their REER from its long-term equilibrium. Such a counter-intuitive result shows that these countries seem in fact to practice an exchange rate regime contrary to those officially declared and/or that they are unable to use their automatic stabilizer weapon. As a result, it is imperative for SSA countries to adopt good exchange rate management by opting for consecutive undervaluations in order to promote the growth of the export sector and industrial development.
Author Keywords: misalignment, exchange rate, exchange rate regime, sub-Saharan Africa.
Abstract: (french)
Ce présent article a pour objectif d’analyser la nature du désalignement du taux de change en comparant son amplitude suivant les deux régimes de change. Pour ce faire, le modèle de taux de change d’équilibre comportemental (BEER) est utilisé et à l’aide de l’estimateur PMG du modèle ARDL sur un panel de 36 pays d’Afrique Sub-saharienne (ASS) et sur la période 1998-2018. Il ressort des analyses que les taux de change effectif réel (TCER) des pays d’ASS ayant adopté un régime de change fixe sont dans leur globalité désalignés et qu’il existe des disparités importantes entre les pays. Ces résultats montrent clairement que la gestion du taux de change semble n’est pas être maitrisée ou qu’elle n’est pas en faveur d’une politique de promotion des exportations. Quant aux pays qui ont adopté le régime de change flexible, ils ont tendance à avoir un TCER moins désalignés. Cependant, certains pays comme les Iles des Comores, la Guinée, la Gambie et le Kenya ont connu des écarts importants de leur TCER par rapport à son équilibre de long terme. Un tel résultat contre-intuitif montre que ces pays semblent pratiquer dans les faits un régime de change contraire à ceux déclarés officiellement et/ou qu’ils n’arrivent pas à faire valoir leur arme de stabilisateur automatique. De ce fait, il est impératif pour les pays d’ASS d’adopter une bonne gestion de taux de change en optant pour des sous-évaluations consécutives afin de favoriser l’essor du secteur des exportations et le développement industriel.
Author Keywords: désalignement, taux de change, régime change, Afrique sub-saharienne.
How to Cite this Article
Kirsi Zongo, Mahamadou Diarra, and M. Idrissa Ouedraogo, “Nature of Exchange Rate Misalignment in Sub-Saharan Africa,” International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 1656–1679, June 2023.
