Mamadou Ndiaye1, Ibrahima Diba2, Abdou Karim Farota3, Abdou Karim Diallo4, Bouya DIOP5, and Younousse Biaye6
1 Département de Physique, Laboratoire des Sciences de l’Atmosphère et des Océans-Matériaux, Energies et Dispositifs (LSAO-MED), Université Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Senegal
2 Département de Physique, Laboratoire d’Océanographie, des Sciences de l’Environnement et du Climat (LOSEC), Université Assane SECK de Ziguinchor, Senegal
3 Département de Physique, Laboratoire des Sciences de l’Atmosphère et des Océans-Matériaux, Energies et Dispositifs (LSAO-MED), Université Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Senegal
4 Département de Physique, Laboratoire des Sciences de l’Atmosphère et des Océans-Matériaux, Energies et Dispositifs (LSAO-MED), Université Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Senegal
5 Laboratoire des Sciences de l'atmosphère et des Océans (LSAO), Université Gaston Berger, 224, BP 224, Saint-Louis, Senegal
6 Département de Physique, Laboratoire des Sciences de l’Atmosphère et des Océans-Matériaux, Energies et Dispositifs (LSAO-MED), Université Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Senegal
Original language: English
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Abstract
This study analyzes the potential impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection on extreme precipitation in Senegal, West Africa. Outputs of two global climate models from CMIP5 (HadGEM2-ES and IPSL-CM5A-LR), involved in the GeoMIP G3 experiment, are used and compared with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Nine extreme precipitation indices recommended by the joint Ccl/WCRP/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI), (R1mm, R10mm, R20mm, RX1DAY, RX5DAY, R95P, R99P, CWD, and CDD) are analyzed during the rainy season June to September (JJAS). First, climate models were evaluated in terms of their capacity to simulate summer extremes precipitation during the historical period (1981-2000), and secondly its changes were examined between the near-term (2030-2049), mid-term (2050-2069), and long-term (2070-2089) relative to the baseline period. Results show that the ensemble mean of the models accurately reproduces the spatial distribution of extremes precipitation in Senegal despite some biases. Historical trends show a significant increase in intense rainfall in the south and a persistence of dry conditions in the northern and eastern parts of the country. Future projections under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios reveal a decrease of the number of rainy days and a shift in the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation toward the southern and southeastern regions of the country. However, the G3 geoengineering experiment significantly mitigates these changes by slowing the decline in the frequency of extreme precipitation over the country. It is therefore essential that policymakers integrate the geoengineering approach into a comprehensive strategy, combining it with ambitious actions to reduce emissions and build resilience to climate change.
Author Keywords: extreme precipitation, aerosol, GeoMIP, CMIP5, Senegal.
