[ Analyse des déterminants de l’élevage pastoral face aux changements globaux à l’aide du modèle Random Forest au Burkina Faso ]
Volume 47, Issue 1, November 2025, Pages 107–117
Abdoul Kader Gandema1, Salifou Ouedraogo-Kone2, André Kiema3, and Bilassé Zongo4
1 École Doctorale Sciences Naturelles et Agronomie (SNA), Université Nazi BONI BP 1091, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
2 Université Nazi Boni (UNB), 01 BP 1091 Bobo-Dioulasso 01, Burkina Faso
3 Centre de Recherches Environnementales, Agricoles et de Formation de Kamboinsin (CREAF), Institut de l’Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles (INERA), 01 BP 476 Ouagadougou 01, Burkina Faso
4 Université Nazi Boni (UNB), 01 BP 1091 Bobo-Dioulasso 01, Burkina Faso
Original language: French
Copyright © 2025 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
In Burkina Faso, pastoralism plays an important role in the development of animal production. However, the factors of its survival today remain insufficiently controlled. The objective of this study is to determine the important variables involved in predicting the survival of pastoralism in Sahelian countries plagued by insecurity. This study was conducted in two agroecological zones of Burkina Faso. It consisted of the selection of variables using the Random Forest package of Minitab 19.1 software to assess the importance of these variables in predicting the future practice of pastoral mobility. The results showed that the number of cattle was high among migrants with great variability (60 to 80 heads). Native herders have the highest numbers of small ruminants respectively 25 to 35 for sheep and 20 to 33 for goats. The results of the model showed eleven (11) variables strongly influenced the importance of the variables; The main variables were the village (55.48%), cattle population (14.754%), animal acquisition method (8.716%), and age (4.461%). Geographical and zootechnical factors were predominant, unlike social variables, which had little influence. In the current context of major social changes, it would be important to emphasize that a strategic approach could benefit the sustainability of pastoral farming. In order to ensure the survival and prosperity of this ancestral practice, it would be wise to carefully consider and effectively integrate the important variables.
Author Keywords: trajectory, pastoral mobility, sustainability, mutation.
Volume 47, Issue 1, November 2025, Pages 107–117
Abdoul Kader Gandema1, Salifou Ouedraogo-Kone2, André Kiema3, and Bilassé Zongo4
1 École Doctorale Sciences Naturelles et Agronomie (SNA), Université Nazi BONI BP 1091, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso
2 Université Nazi Boni (UNB), 01 BP 1091 Bobo-Dioulasso 01, Burkina Faso
3 Centre de Recherches Environnementales, Agricoles et de Formation de Kamboinsin (CREAF), Institut de l’Environnement et de Recherches Agricoles (INERA), 01 BP 476 Ouagadougou 01, Burkina Faso
4 Université Nazi Boni (UNB), 01 BP 1091 Bobo-Dioulasso 01, Burkina Faso
Original language: French
Copyright © 2025 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
In Burkina Faso, pastoralism plays an important role in the development of animal production. However, the factors of its survival today remain insufficiently controlled. The objective of this study is to determine the important variables involved in predicting the survival of pastoralism in Sahelian countries plagued by insecurity. This study was conducted in two agroecological zones of Burkina Faso. It consisted of the selection of variables using the Random Forest package of Minitab 19.1 software to assess the importance of these variables in predicting the future practice of pastoral mobility. The results showed that the number of cattle was high among migrants with great variability (60 to 80 heads). Native herders have the highest numbers of small ruminants respectively 25 to 35 for sheep and 20 to 33 for goats. The results of the model showed eleven (11) variables strongly influenced the importance of the variables; The main variables were the village (55.48%), cattle population (14.754%), animal acquisition method (8.716%), and age (4.461%). Geographical and zootechnical factors were predominant, unlike social variables, which had little influence. In the current context of major social changes, it would be important to emphasize that a strategic approach could benefit the sustainability of pastoral farming. In order to ensure the survival and prosperity of this ancestral practice, it would be wise to carefully consider and effectively integrate the important variables.
Author Keywords: trajectory, pastoral mobility, sustainability, mutation.
Abstract: (french)
Au Burkina Faso, le pastoralisme joue un rôle important dans le développement de la production animale. Cependant, les facteurs de sa survie de nos jours demeurent insuffisamment maîtrisés. L’objectif de cette étude a visé à déterminer les variables importantes entrant dans la prédiction de la survie du pastoralisme dans les pays sahéliens en proie à l’insécurité. Cette étude a été conduite dans deux zones agroécologiques du Burkina Faso. Elle a consisté à la sélection des variables à l’aide du package Random Forest du logiciel Minitab 19.1 pour évaluer leurs importances dans la prédiction de la pratique future de la mobilité pastorale. Les résultats ont montré que l’effectif des bovins a été élevé chez les migrants avec une grande variabilité (60 à 80 têtes). Les éleveurs natifs présentent les effectifs de petits ruminants les plus élevés respectivement 25 à 35 pour les ovins et 20 à 33 pour les caprins. L’analyse d’importance des variables a identifié onze (11) qui présentent une influence significative sur les prédictions du modèle. Les principales variables ont été le village (55,48 %), l’effectif bovin (14,754 %), le mode d’acquisition des animaux (8,716 %), et l’âge (4,461 %). Les facteurs géographiques et zootechniques étaient prédominants, contrairement aux variables sociales, peu influentes. Dans le contexte actuel de changements sociaux majeurs, afin d’assurer la survie et la prospérité de cette pratique ancestrale, il serait important de souligner qu’une approche stratégique pourrait bénéficier à la pérennité de l’élevage pastoral.
Author Keywords: trajectoire, mobilité pastorale, durabilité, mutation.
How to Cite this Article
Abdoul Kader Gandema, Salifou Ouedraogo-Kone, André Kiema, and Bilassé Zongo, “Analysis of the determinants of pastoral livestock farming in the face of global changes using the Random Forest model in Burkina Faso,” International Journal of Innovation and Applied Studies, vol. 47, no. 1, pp. 107–117, November 2025.
